Predictions for 2010

As it's December I get to blog some predictions, that I'll either ignore (as I've been proven completely wrong) - or use to tell everyone "I told you so" later on in the year.

So what do I think is going to be interesting in the new media market in 2010?

New application stores, and re-launches of application stores will continue to happen during 2010. As new application stores launch they will increasingly have problems getting quality application inventory as the cost of maintaining multiple application store listings deters developers. Some innovative companies will start to offer solutions to this problem with "meta aggregators" that manage applications listings in multiple application stores (Symbian Horizon is an example of this), however they will struggle to add long term value to developers, and so will have a limited lifetime. So my predictions are:

Big application stores will get bigger

Watch for a relaunch of Nokia's Ovi Store together with more operator partnerships to start to drive significant volume

Apple's App Store will continue to set the standard, and drive volumes.

Blackberry applications will see a resurgence as Blackberry devices grow fast in the consumer market, and RIM's increased developer focus.

Successful iPhone Application developers port to other platforms

Successful application developers from Apple's Application store will start to port to other platforms as they search for cheap routes to grow new revenues. The platforms that will benefit most from this will be Android and Blackberry, as these both have great mindshare in the USA. In Europe I expect Blackberry to grow strongly, and start challenging Nokia, Samsung and Sony Ericsson.

Audiences integrate mobile as part of their media consumption for major events (Election, World Cup)

In the UK we have two pending major national events that will have mobile integrated as part of the audience experience - in May we expect a General Election, and in June there is the FIFA World Cup. In both cases audiences will be integrating mobile as part of the overall media experience - there will be a small number of very smart media companies and advertisers who will have successful campaigns that have mobile elements as a part of this. (If you are a smart media company or advertiser and would like to find out how - contact us at Live Talkback to find out what we are doing)

Android loses it's shine with developers, Blackberry is a surprise hit

As new Android devices come out from multiple manufacturers and the platform fragments with different screen sizes, experiences and features on different devices it will lose it's appeal with developers. Those developers who switch their Java platform development to Blackberry will be surprised by the success, as Blackberry grows fast in the consumer market outside it's traditional enterprise strength. RIM will delight developers with new offerings, and consumers a new OS platform that integrates a great WebKit offering from the team at Torch Mobile. Manufacturer controlled mobile platforms that use open source components will be the new theme in mobile platforms.

BBC Canvas project will launch devices and a new generation of internet + broadcast experiences will appear

The BBC Canvas project will receive final approval, and will launch the first generation of devices that consumers will rapidly adopt as they enable BBC's iPlayer free, on demand IPTV service to reach TV screens. There will be some bold experiments with interactivity around TV and broadcast - but the majority of usage will be on demand TV services. Free, interactive TV services will challenge the growth of premium rate phone call TV shows like X-Factor and I'm A Celebrity, but will not have any significant revenue impact for ITV in 2010.

That's it for my predictions for this year - let's see how things turn out as 2010 progresses.

Comments

[Dave Hawes]

Interesting predictions, I think I would have to agree with your 'Big application stores will get bigger' and will watch with interest things like Andriod and Blackberry.

Any preditions on what mobile apps will be use for? I think there might be some interesting developments in 2010 with regards to MicroPayments which might attracte a lot more businesses to create mobile apps accelerating the shift from paper to digital money.

[Liz Myers]

Thanks for your predictions Matt - very interesting indeed! I've also read that Apple has approached big US broadcasters (ABC, CBS) about providing on-demand TV via iTunes for a nominal subscription fee (est. $30/mo). If that goes ahead, I think you're spot on when you predict the iTunes App store will see substantial growth.

On the other hand, I'm surprised you predict RIMM will be more successful than Android. WSJ and others point to the new Google phone, Nexus One, that will be sold direct to consumers starting next year. Surely they wouldn't circumvent operators, without having an attractive service offering as well. If so, they could surmount fragmentation with a competitive mass-market package (device + service) and grab significant market share.

Just my two pence :-) Now we'll have to wait and see...

Wishing you a Happy (and Prosperous) New Year! - Liz M

[Matt Millar]

What will apps be used for? Everything - the mobile app market is large, and will keep getting larger - there will be an app for everything you can imagine - just like there is a website for pretty much everything you can imagine.

I don't think the Nexus One with a direct from Google phone will have a significant impact - why? I think there is a big challenge on cost/network contracts. Too many people are used to getting subsidised phones from mobile operators - and in the major markets that Google wants to crack (US, Western Europe) this will delay them having a big impact. Apple tried the same with the v1 launch of the iPhone - and failed - iPhone growth has too been traditional subsidised phone growth.

Blackberry know this market well, and with a better browser, and more consumer brand recognition I think they will accelerate their growth path. Controversial? Yes, but then I like to think different. I look forward to either Blackberry proving me right, or Google proving me wrong.