Views on the new media market

Predictions for 2010

As it's December I get to blog some predictions, that I'll either ignore (as I've been proven completely wrong) - or use to tell everyone "I told you so" later on in the year.

So what do I think is going to be interesting in the new media market in 2010?

New application stores, and re-launches of application stores will continue to happen during 2010. As new application stores launch they will increasingly have problems getting quality application inventory as the cost of maintaining multiple application store listings deters developers. Some innovative companies will start to offer solutions to this problem with "meta aggregators" that manage applications listings in multiple application stores (Symbian Horizon is an example of this), however they will struggle to add long term value to developers, and so will have a limited lifetime. So my predictions are:

Big application stores will get bigger

Watch for a relaunch of Nokia's Ovi Store together with more operator partnerships to start to drive significant volume

Apple's App Store will continue to set the standard, and drive volumes.

Blackberry applications will see a resurgence as Blackberry devices grow fast in the consumer market, and RIM's increased developer focus.

Successful iPhone Application developers port to other platforms

Successful application developers from Apple's Application store will start to port to other platforms as they search for cheap routes to grow new revenues. The platforms that will benefit most from this will be Android and Blackberry, as these both have great mindshare in the USA. In Europe I expect Blackberry to grow strongly, and start challenging Nokia, Samsung and Sony Ericsson.

Audiences integrate mobile as part of their media consumption for major events (Election, World Cup)

In the UK we have two pending major national events that will have mobile integrated as part of the audience experience - in May we expect a General Election, and in June there is the FIFA World Cup. In both cases audiences will be integrating mobile as part of the overall media experience - there will be a small number of very smart media companies and advertisers who will have successful campaigns that have mobile elements as a part of this. (If you are a smart media company or advertiser and would like to find out how - contact us at Live Talkback to find out what we are doing)

Android loses it's shine with developers, Blackberry is a surprise hit

As new Android devices come out from multiple manufacturers and the platform fragments with different screen sizes, experiences and features on different devices it will lose it's appeal with developers. Those developers who switch their Java platform development to Blackberry will be surprised by the success, as Blackberry grows fast in the consumer market outside it's traditional enterprise strength. RIM will delight developers with new offerings, and consumers a new OS platform that integrates a great WebKit offering from the team at Torch Mobile. Manufacturer controlled mobile platforms that use open source components will be the new theme in mobile platforms.

BBC Canvas project will launch devices and a new generation of internet + broadcast experiences will appear

The BBC Canvas project will receive final approval, and will launch the first generation of devices that consumers will rapidly adopt as they enable BBC's iPlayer free, on demand IPTV service to reach TV screens. There will be some bold experiments with interactivity around TV and broadcast - but the majority of usage will be on demand TV services. Free, interactive TV services will challenge the growth of premium rate phone call TV shows like X-Factor and I'm A Celebrity, but will not have any significant revenue impact for ITV in 2010.

That's it for my predictions for this year - let's see how things turn out as 2010 progresses.

Google and Nokia competing with free

There has been lots of chatter about Google's gift of the Nexus One to it's staff. This is normal practice for smart companies in the mobile space - what better way to get feedback on early, experimental products and services than have your own staff use the early releases.

There has been much chatter about whether Google will go the next step and make the Nexus One available directly to the public. There is already an established mobile brand that has taken this step - Nokia. Unfortunately for Nokia it seems like consumers don't have that much demand for directly purchasing phones - Nokia's flagship stores are being closed.

The challenge for both Google and Nokia here is that they are both in the business of selling a product that consumers consider to be free - in Google's case search and applications are offered free to the consumer and subsidised by advertising revenues, in Nokia's case phones are offered free to the consumer and subsidised by network operator subscriptions.

As the music and media industries have seen there is often a big change in the demand for products when the move from free to paid. Evidence from some music services suggest that the fall in demand once you ask consumers to pay for something may be as much as 80%.

So Nokia and Google face the same challenge - how do they offer something that consumers currently get for free in a way that makes consumers prepared to pay for it?

One distraction in mobile is the word mobile - while most actual use of phones is in two locations - home and work. So creating compelling services that consumers will pay for has to offer some benefits in those two locations.

The mobile phone has succeeded at this in the past - some examples

Voice calls - consumers are used to having access to alternative forms of voice calling at both home and work - yet the convenience of integrated address books in mobile phones have succeeded in capturing more and more voice call revenue from landlines.

Text messaging - the ubiquity of SMS based text messaging captured huge new markets even when large numbers of people also had email and PC's with far better keyboards for text entry.

For me there is a new example National Rail Enquiries even though there are multiple ways I can get hold of this information - either phone, or websites, I choose to use the iPhone application, even when at my desk. The simplicity and focus of the application helps me get what I want done straight away.

The challenge for Google and Nokia engineers is thus to answer this question What services would you choose to use from your mobile phone while you are sat in front of your PC? The winners will be able to show examples of more phone usage - not just mobile, but every minute of the day.

Teens and mobile - some observations

At Live Talkback we had the opportunity to pitch to a panel of teenagers yesterday - and the insights were great. The panel was organised by the fabulous Julia Shalet, and is something I recommend that any product company does - the feedback was honest, blunt and a great insight into the minds of a generation who will be shaping the future.

The panel started with introductions from the teenagers - who had each prepared photo montages of what was important to them. The panel came from a mixture of backgrounds - two from a private school in North London, two from a South London Comprehensive, and two from an Inner City Comprehensive in Hackney.

I was struck by the similarities, and the intelligence of all on the panel - they all were able to thoughtfully articulate issues and concerns with all the product pitches.

I was struck by how deep the understanding that the panel had around how to leverage networks and online activities - and the dangers. Quotes (which are my paraphrase, any errors or misattributions are entirely mine) which stuck in my mind are "I take care not to post photos that could be embarassing to Facebook - I don't want them to appear in the school magazine". The teens were all fully aware of the issues around privacy in networks, and able to manage them - though I'm confident that they could all have shared mistakes (who couldn't?).

They all also had multiple "social networks" with different levels of trust. Instant Messaging, particularly Windows Live IM were in use by all of them, and SMS was hardly mentioned - indeed sharing a phone number was seen as something rare - it's a private thing, where teens were happy to share Windows Live IM identities on a more casual basis. Facebook usage was similarly restricted to close circles of friends.

For the many companies, mobile operators included, who offer a proposition of "unified communications" - this is rather a wake up call - teens want to maintain different identities for different people - so tempting them with a "simpler" unified identity is unlikely to be desirable. It seems people can manage the fact they have different circles of contacts.

Mobile phone use was very limited - two teens expressed "A phone is for making calls" - while two wanted slim, touch screen phones.

A common pattern of usage seemed to be limited phone usage, but much more use of the web on the PC (facebook and Windows Live IM stood out here). I'm curious as to how this usage will evolve over the next 5 years of their lives - as the environment that they work in changes, moving from a school environment with time for personal PC usage after school, to a work environment that has PC usage available during the day - but personal usage may become more restricted to mobile phones.

If there are any 23 year olds reading this blog then please comment with how your usage of PC and mobile have changed in the last 5 years.

What was the result of the panel discussion? At Live Talkback we have work to do to create a proposition that shows real benefit to teens - fortunately the suggestions the teen panel made are all areas that we are working on, so I'll continue to engage with our customers and find out how they want us to develop our offer.

I recommend anyone creating products to try a similar exercise - the feedback is refreshingly honest and productive.